Forrester analyst James McQuivey just released this research document saying that Amazon will be lucky to sell 50,000 Kindles in the first year. He goes on to say that "the Kindle solves problems that publishers and retailers have, not problems that readers have."
Kindle version 1.0 is definitely an expensive luxury for most people. I'm not sure it's safe to say that future versions will really be built to solve a "problem" though. Amazon is simply offering another way for readers to obtain content. Yes, the $400 price is wicked high. That should come down over time though. Additionally, I have every bit of confidence in Amazon to create special content offerings, subscriptions, etc., that will make the Kindle even more attractive down the road.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Forrester Projects 50K Kindles (at best) in First Year
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From the Executive Summary: "At $399, the price [of the Kindle] is too high".
Then, "Buy Risk Free [the full Forrester Research report]: US $279.00
It's pretty clear that this prediction was off by a factor of about 10, with Citigroup's Mark Mahaney estimating that first-year Kindle sales totaled about 500,000. And it's also clear from the Kindle readers I've spoken with that the device has enhanced their reading experience enough to create unusually strong loyalty, often expressed as "love" for the product.
I'm going back through your blog from the beginning, Joe, to see if I can figure out when your initial enthusiasm for the Kindle soured. From the early and extensive retweeting of your recent "one click away" comment, I'm sure you're going to generate lots of comment and attention. That's not surprising, because you are the first Kindle enthusiast I've seen turn decidedly against the tide. I know you're sincere, so I'm curious and will be following along closely as your new role as Kindle Kritic unfolds. :-)
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